Wilson, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS62 KRAH 031729
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will build east into the Southeast US through
tonight. The high will move offshore late Wednesday, with onset of
southerly return flow allowing a brief warm-up before another cold
front crosses the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM Tuesday...

Satellite imagery is clear as of this morning. The upper trough
continues to swing through, but the forcing has lifted south and
east of the area. Several reports from the media, EMs, partners and
CoCoRaHS, show that about a half inch to an inch of snow fell across
the northwest Piedmont. The highest reports came in near Asheboro
with 1.5 inches at the Asheboro EM Headquarters. Based on liquid
measurements between 0.02 and 0.06", this would suggest it was a 20-
25 to 1 snow-to-liquid ratio, certainly outside the norm for central
NC. Satellite imagery reveals this snow cover, albeit faintly,
across Davidson, Randolph, portions of Guilford and Forsyth.

Today is going be a cold one, with temperatures some 15 degrees
below normal in the low 40s - some areas over the northeast Piedmont
may not get out of the upper 30s.

Tonight, with high pressure settling in from the west, winds will go
calm and skies will be clear. With an anomalously cold airmass in
place, along with dewpoints in the teens, overnight lows should drop
some 15-20 degrees below normal in the mid teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 2550 AM Tuesday...

The broad upper trough in place over the eastern two-thirds of the
US will reload Wednesday as a strong upper level cyclone and
associated large trough dives southward out of Canada into the Upper
Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Heights aloft will
steadily decrease throughout the day and into the night. Meanwhile
at the surface, Arctic high pressure will move off the SE Us coast
late in the day. Onset of southerly winds will result in a modest
moderation of the cA in place. Highs in the mid 40s north to near 50
south.

A 40-50kt LLJ along the southern periphery of the reinforcing trough
will overspread the area Wednesday night and should keep the BL well
mixed with steadily southerly sfc winds of 10 to 12 kts and
intermittent gustiness. Not as cold with lows in the lower to mid
30s.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 316 AM Tuesday...

Aloft, a weak, moisture-starved short-wave will push offshore
Thursday. Behind this feature, re-enforced dry nwly flow will
prevail over central NC Friday through Saturday.  A strong, southern
stream short-wave will then approach Sunday, before passing overhead
sometime early next week.

Thursday through Saturday: A strong, re-enforcing arctic cold front
will push across our area Thursday afternoon. Currently think the
timing of the frontal passage will be late enough in the day to
allow temps to climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s (N to S) Thursday
afternoon.  Forecast soundings indicate solid mixing potential ahead
of and behind the front.  Would not be surprised to see 20 to 30 mph
gusts from late morning Thursday through the evening period.

CAA will ramp up Thursday night, dropping overnight lows into the
upper teens/lower 20s early Friday morning.  Highs Friday afternoon
may struggle to top 40 degrees for much of our area. However, the
center of a sfc high will move near and over central NC Friday
afternoon/evening which should limit wind gusts during this period.
Given good radiational cooling potential Friday night, we could see
overnight lows dip into the mid to upper teens early Saturday
morning. The sfc high should generally move offshore by Saturday
afternoon, allowing some moderation of daytime highs back into the
upper 40s/lower 50s.

Sunday through Monday: While there is still uncertainty wrt to our
next weather system, there does seem to be a bit better agreement
amongst models wrt to holding off precipitation chances until at
least late Sunday night/early Monday. The southern-stream upper
short-wave will eject out of the Gulf states and spread anomalous
moisture over the southeast in this general timeframe. There is a
bit of timing disagreement currently as the GFS wants to spread this
moisture and associated precipitation into our area earlier than the
Euro and it`s ensemble consensus (the Canadian/GEPS is similarly
slower).  Decided not to stray too far from the NBM, capping POPs in
the low to mid chance range starting Sunday night and peaking Monday
afternoon.  Will dial in details as we get closer to this weekend.
One thing different from yesterday`s forecast is that the overall
consensus is that any precipitation would likely fall as liquid
during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

There is high confidence in VFR through the 24-hour TAF period.
Winds out of NW today will become calm tonight, before switching to
the southwest tomorrow. Winds could gusts in the teens to low 20s kt
Wed afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist through the upcoming
weekend. LLWS is still favorable Wednesday night into Thursday
morning before a mostly dry cold front moves through the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Kren/CBL